Durban - When people talk about the Great Depression, they generally refer to a single day - Black Tuesday. It was the day the stock market crashed, October 29, 1929.
But the Great Depression did not last a single day.
For years after Black Tuesday, the economies of most countries fell, causing widespread misery. In America it lasted almost a decade. In other countries the pain went on for longer.
During this time people learnt to be frugal, and a family with a garden and a cow were considered rich.
Ninety years later, the world is in the throes of another crisis, one that will arguably cause even greater chaos than the Great Depression.
While the coronavirus pandemic threatens the global economy, it is also the greatest contemporary threat to our survival as a species.
Without a cure, the virus and its effects will be with us for many more years.
Recently, CNN quoted an expert on pandemics who predicted the virus would infect about 60 to 70% of Americans.
That’s the infection rate Health Minister Zweli Mkhize predicted for our country while addressing a gathering of doctors in March.
But back to the American expert, Mike Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. According to the forecasts he and a team put together, the outbreak will last between 18 and 24 months.
They predicted three possible scenarios:
A big wave followed by a series of smaller waves over a year or two until 2021.
An initial wave followed by a larger wave and, thereafter, smaller waves lasting until 2021.
A “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and death.
The three scenarios will challenge our health-care system in different ways.
But irrespective of which scenario plays out, businesses will close and people will lose their jobs. The result will be untold misery and death for years to come.
This week, in his weekly online column, President Cyril Ramaphosa said: “These are indeed desperate times.”
He said we had not yet reached the peak of infections in South Africa. According to current models, that will happen in September.
Ramaphosa said that in 1995 the Constitutional Court ruled that the right to life and dignity was the most important of all human rights.
He said the regulations put in place during the lockdown, including the ban on cigarettes, were based on that commitment to life and dignity.
As the lockdown eased somewhat this week, it is important to remember we are still in danger.
We need to learn from the Great Depression to prevent the Great Death. We need to be frugal.
And we need to put human life first by ensuring we do everything we can to stay healthy.