The election of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States in 2024 marks a pivotal moment for global politics, particularly for Africa and South Africa.
Trump’s return to power reflects a broader trend towards populist, right-leaning policies that resonate with nationalist leaders worldwide.
This shift carries significant implications for African geopolitics, economic partnerships, and the continent’s role in an increasingly multipolar world.
Shift in Foreign Policy and Trade Relations
Trump’s previous administration adopted an “America First” policy that deprioritised Africa, withdrawing from major trade agreements and cutting funding for aid programmes. A second Trump presidency is likely to continue this trend, focusing on domestic economic growth while tightening trade policies that favour U.S. interests.
This poses a direct threat to South Africa, whose trade relationship with the US under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) has been crucial for its economy. The potential restructuring or cancellation of AGOA could severely impact South African exports in textiles, automotive, and agriculture.
Global Power Dynamics and Africa’s Strategic Importance
Trump’s return may intensify competition between the US, China, and Russia for influence in Africa. His previous term saw a lack of engagement with the continent, allowing China to fill the void through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, which significantly invested in African infrastructure.
A re-election could lead to increased scrutiny of Chinese influence, but it may not result in greater US investment in Africa. Instead, Trump may push African nations to reconsider their dependence on Chinese funding, advocating for alignment with U.S. interests.
Impact on African Political Landscapes
Trump’s nationalist approach could inspire similar movements across Africa, especially in regions facing socioeconomic challenges and political disillusionment.
In South Africa, Trump’s election might embolden right-wing populist factions, with parties like the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) using his success as evidence of a global shift towards nationalism. This could lead to increased advocacy for radical policies on land reform and economic redistribution.
Security and Counterterrorism Efforts
Trump has shown sustained interest in counterterrorism, having previously reduced American troops in West Africa while maintaining support for counterterrorism operations.
If he views African nations as breeding grounds for extremism, he may increase military or intelligence activities in regions like the Sahel or the Horn of Africa.
However, without a clear long-term strategy, any engagement is likely to be transactional, leaving African nations to address their security concerns independently.
Climate Change and Energy Policy
Trump’s scepticism towards climate change and deregulation could hinder global climate initiatives critical to Africa’s sustainable development.
While his administration may encourage African nations to exploit fossil fuels for short-term economic gain, this could jeopardise long-term sustainability. For South Africa, grappling with an energy crisis, such an approach may delay the transition to cleaner energy sources.
Immigration Policies and African Relations
Trump’s immigration policies have strained relations with African nations, often perceived as xenophobic. If re-elected, his stance could further alienate Africans in the US, impacting remittances vital for many households. This could tarnish the US’s image among African youth, weakening its soft power on the continent.
In conclusion, Trump’s presidency signifies a world leaning towards nationalism and transactional foreign policy. For Africa, particularly South Africa, this may lead to a re-evaluation of alliances and trade dependencies. As superpowers focus on their agendas, African nations must seek resilience through unity and diversified partnerships.
Anda Mbikwana is a PhD candidate and a municipal finance and leadership in governance expect, he writes in his personal capacity.