Turkmen Terzi
Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing its worst political crisis since the end of the civil war in 1995.
Milorad Dodik, the Serb member of Bosnia’s tripartite presidency, announced this month that the country’s Serb-run entity, Republika Srpska, would quit key state institutions to achieve full autonomy within the country, in violation of the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement.
The agreement established Bosnia and Herzegovina’s administrative system and the country was divided into two entities, a Bosniak-Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Republika Srpska, and headed by a three-member presidency with one from each of the major ethnic groups.
Bosnia and Herzegovina is seen as a possible future member of the EU but is not yet an official candidate. The country has applied for Nato membership. Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Foreign Minister Bisera Turkovic told Newsweek last month that the country's long-time bid for Nato and EU membership was more urgent than ever to avoid “new genocides, war criminals and terrorists”.
Some journalists maintain that there is no serious tension between Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three largest ethnic groups of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats. However, Milorad Dodik, who has been losing public support leading up to the election scheduled for October 2 this year, has been using populist rhetoric to divert attention from the grave economic situation in the Republika Srpska.
Turkey has closely been following the recent political crises in Bosnia Herzegovina. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has expressed his willingness to hold the Türkiye-Bosnia Herzegovina-Serbia trilateral summit at the appropriate time. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu also stated, with his Bosnian counterpart Jasmina Turkovic during a recent visit to Sarajevo on Saturday, that “Bosnia and Herzegovina plays a key role in the region's stability, and Türkiye will not allow a new conflict”.
While Erdogan’s close relationship with Serbian leader Alexsandar Vucic and Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik is seemingly beneficial in improving ties with Serbs to avoid further civil war, Erdogan’s increasing religious populism and ethnic nationalism have begun to disturb the Bosnian authorities.
The region was under the control of the Ottoman from 1463 until the late 1800s and, consequently, Bosnians historically value their relationship with Muslim Türkiye, but also look toward their future in the EU.
A large number of Bosnians work in Germany as the youth unemployment rate in Bosnia is close to 50%. Moreover, all the High Representatives for Bosnia and Herzegovina who oversee the civilian implementation of the Dayton Agreement, have been from EU countries. And Erdogan’s current anti-Western rhetoric is causing further harm to the Bosnian cause.
Finland and Sweden recently applied for Nato membership in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, while Erdogan, who is the leader of strong Nato member Turkey, has opposed the Nato application of the Nordic states and accused them of harbouring terrorists. As Erdogan blocks Finland and Sweden’s application, other European Nato members could delay Bosnia and Herzegovina’s EU and Nato membership.
Erdogan has long been taking advantage of the suffering of poor Palestinians by portraying himself as a leader of the Muslim world while strengthening business and political ties with Israel. Similarly, Erdogan is using Turkish NGOs as a soft power in Bosnia while doing business with Serbs. Erdogan’s populist politics will neither benefit nor assist Bosnian Muslims. Instead, it is likely to further isolate them from the heart of Europe.
The Star