By Hadebe Hadebe
One weekend newspaper carried a grossly misleading story that claimed that the battle lines were drawn in the ANC between its president Cyril Ramaphosa and embattled secretary general Ace Magashule.
As far as the story goes, some in the organisation want Magashule “to step aside” following the corruption charges.
This simply goes to show how the media, opposition parties and analysts do not understand what is happening in the ruling party. The ANC is united in purpose, and that purpose is to retain political power as far as it is possible. The ANC neither has intentions to split nor to sack any of its leaders.
The best way to describe the ANC is using the survival strategies of buffaloes in the wild. For many who subscribe to a factionalist school will find it hard to understand that the seemingly disorganised organisation such as the ANC is actually not as reckless as many people would like to believe.
Thus, there’s actually nothing much to read from the much publicised squabbles involving the so-called opposing factions. The ANC squabbles have existed for more than a decade, during Thabo Mbeki’s time, and reached what many thought was a moment of no return under Jacob Zuma. They continue today with much vigour, but still, there is absolutely nothing that will happen.
As a matter of fact, the formation of the splinter Congress of the People (Cope) after the 2008 elective conference was a near-miss for the ANC.
The much-talked about split today will never happen any time soon. The lessons learned from the Cope experience is what keeps the ANC glued together. Many fear what others believe to be scaremongering that says: “It’s cold outside the ANC!”
The differences and haggling mean zilch in the bigger scheme of things, because the ANC understands that the large majorities it gets in elections are only possible when it doesn’t split.
Zuma proved to many that it did not matter how bad one thinks he is treated by some in the organisation, it is better to stick around than leave – they call it principle. His detractors whom he removed from ministerial posts when he shuffled his Cabinets in the middle of the night used the same strategy.
It did not matter the number of threats that some people made to leave during the “nine wasted years”, they stayed. Even the folly of voting with conscience failed to impeach Zuma on umpteen occasions. Mzwanele Manyi’s ATM will soon learn that buffaloes don’t break rank, the impeachment against Ramaphosa will end in the dustbin.
In fact, some who were staunch Zuma supporters have changed colours like a chameleon to adapt to the new environment. This colouration by ANC members is very interesting to observe as it acts as a camouflage for the whole organisation to deceive onlookers and critics. We defend the ANC, they say. Life goes on and patronage keeps coming.
Just like the buffaloes, the ANC understands that its power lies in strength and numbers, and maybe mood swings too. A buffalo is really big and strong at 3.4 metres long, 1.7 metres tall and 860 kilograms. The ANC membership or voters resembles the strength of its massive head and boss (horns), a broad chest and sturdy legs. They keep voting it over and over again.
The top six and the national executive committee keep things together in the herd.
Magashule and Ramaphosa could therefore be likened to adult bulls who are affiliated to and preside over the clans. The rivalry is not about death, but a quest for domination and privilege within the herd. They occupy centre circles within herds which affords them status and prestige in their clusters. The ANC understands these hierarchies like buffaloes: for now, Magashule rules at Luthuli House, and Ramaphosa is president.
One herd of buffaloes doesn’t permit two centres of power, but it is not anomalous having these clusters with their own leaders for as long as the shape and form of the group is not disturbed. The ANC surges forward with all the problems and outstanding matters such as corruption and other issues.
Magashule and Ramaphosa lead separate clusters, who wear exactly the same uniform and also share many other traits. When under attack during elections they coalesce and campaign for each other, because their unity is in a single purpose.
At the end of the national executive and working committees, the bulls appear muddy and dirty. That is how they keep cool in the scorching African sun, there is nothing to read from the ruggedness. Together with their herds, the bulls are quite adaptable. They are at home in water as they are comfortable on the open veld, woodlands, forests and riverine forests.
Buffaloes never forget a wrong. Next to the fellow “Big Five” member the elephant, the buffalo has exceptional memory.
In this regard, they ambush and attack hunters that have wounded or injured them, that is even many years later. The return to Johannesburg metro is just but one instance to show that the ANC doesn’t forget like a buffalo.
Maybe the ANC will also give up one day. But, for now, the herd of buffaloes is on the move.
Hadebe Hadebe is an independent political analyst who writes in his own capacity.
The Star