With millionaire Donald Trump securing his return to the White House after announcing an early victory on Wednesday, November 6, 2024 US presidential election, SA-US relations have taken a hit.
Already fractured by SA’s move to hold Israel, whom Trump is a staunch supporter of, accountable for alleged genocide in Gaza after it recently filed a memorial to the International Court of Justice (ICJ).
Republican Trump declared victory by yesterday afternoon after gunning 277 electoral votes against the 244 that were banked by US Vice President and Democrat Kamala Harris, who was contesting Trump.
Trump’s victory has significant implications for SA and its president, Cyril Ramaphosa and the Government of National Unity (GNU).
Efforts to reach presidential spokesperson Vincent Magwenya were fruitless.
However, Ramaphosa took to social media minutes after it was confirmed Harris would be unable to match Trump’s voter numbers to congratulate him.
“Congratulations to United States President-Elect -@realDonaldTrump- on your return to the presidency. I look forward to continuing the close and mutually beneficial partnership between our two nations across all domains of our cooperation. In the global arena, we look forward to our presidency of the G20 in 2025, where we will work closely with the US who will succeed us in the G20 presidency in 2026,” Ramaphosa wrote on social media.
However, experts have painted a gloomy picture for Ramaphosa’s SA, saying Trump’s victory spelled trouble for Ramaphosa as it was about to shake up SA’s political landscape.
Political analyst and independent writer, Sipho Tshabalala, said Trump’s success could put Ramaphosa’s hold on power in jeopardy.
Tshabalala intimated that Ramaphosa had cultivated a close alliance with America’s wealthiest elites, particularly the influential Menell and Oppenheimer families, under Joe Biden’s administration, who Trump had succeeded.
Tshabalala said with Trump’s return, the carefully crafted protection was crumbling. He further intimated that Ramaphosa’s dependence on the two powerful families’ influence left him exposed to domestic and international threats.
He took a swipe at the GNU, saying that Ramaphosa’s partner in the arrangement had a hold on him.
“The GNU, far from being a cooperative initiative, has allowed the DA to pull the strings on crucial government decisions, from foreign policy to key ministerial appointments,” Tshabalala said.
Another analyst, Tendai Mbanje, from the University of Pretoria’s Centre for Human Rights, speaking on national television yesterday said South Africa was in an uncertain space with Trump’s comeback.
“It’s going to make it harder for SA to make arguments with Trump at the helm. Especially with the GNU. So the government is between a rock and a hard place because Trump is a transactionalist that could be the key to end the war in Gaza… However we must remember he has no soft spot for Hamas,” Mbanje said.
Dr Gideon Chitanga, a renowned international relations expert, speaking to IOL, warned that Trump’s win will cast uncertainty over US-Africa relations.
According to Chitanga, Africa was not a priority during the elections, and Trump’s “America First” policies will likely continue to prioritise American interests. Centre to his concern is that Trump’s business interests-driven foreign policy may not prioritise Africa among global challenges.
Chitanga noted that US foreign policy towards Africa was shifting towards re-engagement under Biden, with Biden expected to visit Angola before his tenure ends, however, Trump’s return may alter this trajectory.
“The immediate aftermath will be uncertain, until a clear picture of the new Trump Africa policy can emerge,” Chitanga said.
However, analyst Sandile Swana had a different perspective, saying SA taking Israel to court was correct because of the legal and moral justification of the violence that has been taking place over Gaza would be in its ending days under Trump.
“Trump being the deal maker that he is, he has to find a way for Israel and Palestine out of the mess… In as much as his support base, the evangelical Christian supports the biblical claim that is that land of Israel. Trump is a businessman and would want a deal done that is less costly than what is going on for the US at the moment.
“Ramaphosa is correct in sending congratulation messages to Trump… Trump is going to make it possible for a settlement between the Ukraine and Russia and SA has been working towards that objective.”
The Star
mashudu.sadike@inl.co.za