Gauteng premier David Makhura has continued to place the blame on the residents for not adhering to non-pharmaceutical measures that have led the province to be the epicenter of Covid-19 third-wave.
But experts say the blame should instead lie squarely on Makhura and his provincial cabinet for lack of preparedness with medical staff, oxygen, and beds as the current wave was predicted.
During a provincial command council (PCC) briefing on Thursday where Makhura was widely expected to announce his recommendations to the National Command Council (NCC) to shut down Africa’s biggest economy, he said shutting down the economy was not possible and blamed the surge on non-compliance by residents.
“We cannot shut down the economy, we cannot ask the national council to shut down the economy. We cannot afford to shut down the economy. Slowing down the pandemic is in our hands,” said Makhura.
However, one expert from the University of Johannesburg (UJ), associate professor Benjamin Smart said although the high rate of new daily infections was very concerning, there was little evidence to suggest that a hard lockdown is any more effective at 'flattening the curve' than the mitigation strategies currently in play.
“This is in part due to the high population density of urban and township living conditions of the majority of South Africans.
“Whilst level 4/5 lockdown has a little positive impact over and above level 3, the negative impact is significant. The formal economy took a substantial hit in the first two-quarters last year (one which we cannot afford to repeat), and those operating in the informal economy typically live hand-to-mouth.
Smart said harder lockdowns directly translate to food insecurity. “In my opinion, the correct measures are being taken by the government - the issue is with implementation. The government needs to look for effective ways to improve compliance more generally,” he said.
Smart said Makhura and his cabinet could have learnt more lessons from their own previous experiences with the first and second waves than from the experiences of other provinces.
“Hospitals must identify areas where they were previously found wanting, and ensure that the same mistakes are not made again.
“There must be sufficient oxygen, sufficient beds, and sufficient nurses. Crucially, the vaccination programme must continue at a high pace. If it seems like too few (people) aged over 60 are coming, the government must open it up to the over 50s. Every vaccination counts towards the magical herd immunity,” said Smart.
Asked what can the Gauteng government could do at the moment to strike a balance between saving the economy and saving lives, Professor Peter Baur from the School of Economics at UJ said: “The possible response by government may be limiting the mobility of people, but because business is under so much pressure to make ends meet, any form of business restriction would also have an impact on the economy.”
Baur added that the Gauteng government was well aware of the situation and the possible consequences of the spread of the virus and the impact on the economy.
“The focus on how we deal with the unexpected going forward will have an impact on the country and its people for a long time to come.
“It’s the way in which the virus is managed now as the economy moves through the third wave which will determine the next level of economic growth for South Africa. The economy cannot afford the additional pressure of new restrictions, but it cannot afford the long-term impact of increasing cases either. It’s not a simple trade-off, it’s a lot more complex, and the poor bear the brunt of the pandemic, yet again.” said Baur.
Meanwhile, DA health spokesperson Jack Bloom said they support limits on activity that do not harm the economy which includes limits on large gatherings, open windows at schools, and protocols for taxis such as open windows for ventilation.
Bloom lambasted the provincial government for lack of preparedness for the third wave, saying they should have been a lot more prepared with medical staff and beds as the wave was widely predicted.
“Why was there no staff for 400 out of 500 new beds at Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital? The problem is that many of the promised new beds are not completed, such as the 300 beds at the Kopanong Hospital in Vereeniging, or in the wrong place, or they don’t have staff and equipment,” he said.
“The need for adequate staff is a major lesson for other provinces as their cases rise. Oxygen supplies are also critical. Retired medical staff and volunteers should be recruited urgently to assist the public health sector in dealing with the tsunami of new Covid-19 cases.”