The moderate Tropical Storm ‘Filipo’ that is currently nearing the coast of southern Mozambique, is expected to impact north-eastern areas of South Africa.
The tropical low-pressure system located between Madagascar and mainland southern Africa (Mozambique Channel) experienced “significant intensification overnight”, attaining a ‘Moderate Tropical Storm’ status, according to South Africa Weather Service (Saws).
Consequently, it has now been elevated to a “named” system, namely Moderate Tropical Storm “Filipo”.
The new storm status is often associated with average winds of 63 to 89 km/h.
How will the moderate tropical storm affect South Africa?
While the storm is expected to affect mostly the southern parts of Mozambique, some of its effects will also be felt over the extreme north-eastern parts of South Africa.
Heavy rainfall is likely over the southern lowveld of Mpumalanga, Eswatini and north-eastern parts of KwaZulu-Natal on Wednesday, as the system departs from southern Africa, back into the Indian Ocean.
There is a moderate to high risk of heavy rainfall occurring over the lowveld regions of Limpopo on Tuesday and over the lowveld of Mpumalanga on Wednesday.
For Mpumalanga, there is a risk of orographically-enhanced rainfall occurring along the eastern escarpment region on Wednesday. This refers to rainfall that is caused or enhanced by one or more of the effects of mountains on the weather.
Heavy rain and localised flooding may occur over the southern Lowveld (including the Kruger National Park), as well as extreme north-eastern KwaZulu-Natal (KZN).
These are the major rivers of the central and southern half of the Kruger National Park (KNP) that are expected to be affected: the Olifants, Letaba, Sabie and Sand rivers as well as the Crocodile river.
SAWS warned that the extreme south of KNP is likely to be flowing very strongly, possibly in flood, from midweek onwards.
Similarly, the north-eastern extremity of KZN, especially the coast and adjacent interior northwards of Richards Bay can expect sustained, extremely heavy rainfall on Wednesday.
The heavy rain will cease abruptly by Thursday, as the system leaves southern Africa and moves off into the southern Indian Ocean, east of South Africa.
How does it affect Mozambique?
At 8am on Monday, Filipo was positioned just seawards off the southern Mozambican coastline and moved westwards at a modest rate of 11 km/h.
Recent modelling estimates by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) in La Reunion suggest that a storm surge is likely to elevate local sea level by as much as a half a metre.
For much of the southern Mozambican coastline, a high risk exists for weather-related damage from a combination of torrential rain, strong, damaging winds (with wind gusts well more than 100 km/h) as well as storm surge near the coastline.
Heavy and torrential rain is expected to occur over southern Mozambique until Wednesday, as the system moves briskly southward
What is a low-pressure system?
A tropical low-pressure system can be defined as a less dense air mass that is usually wetter and warmer than the surrounding air. Such a system can cause the formation of clouds and storms.
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