Floyd Shivambu’s acrimonious exit from the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) has raised numerous questions about the future relationship between the red berets and the Umkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP).
Political analysts have weighed in on the implications of Shivambu's departure, exploring what this might mean for both parties and the broader South African political landscape.
This week, a fiery EFF leader Julius Malema declared war on Shivambu, saying he betrayed the party for what he described as “greener pastures.” He also dared those who were sympathetic to Shivambu to “leave now“.
Zakhele Ndlovu, a political analyst from the University of KwaZulu Natal, expressed concern about the potential fallout from Shivambu's exit.
"Relations between the EFF and MKP do not look good, going forward. I think trust between these two parties has been eroded," he said, emphasising that Malema likely feels betrayed by Shivambu's defection.
Ndlovu further argued that the erosion of trust could have a detrimental impact on the broader Progressive Caucus, a coalition of parties with shared political objectives. The Progressive Caucus in Parliament is made up of the MKP, EFF, ATM, UAT and the CCC.
He also highlighted the ideological differences between the two parties, pointing out that "the MKP is on the centre-right and advocates for the incorporation of traditional leaders into governance structures, a stance that is at odds with the EFF's left-wing agenda“.
On the other hand, fellow UKZN political commentator Dr Lubna Nadvi took a broader view of Shivambu's decision, suggesting that it may have been motivated by personal ambition and a desire to climb the political ladder.
"It is clear that he was not really advancing in terms of leadership within the EFF, and after serving as deputy president for 11 years, he has clearly set his sights elsewhere," Nadvi remarked.
She also suggested that Shivambu’s move to the MKP could be seen as an attempt to further his career, particularly given that the MKP garnered more votes than the EFF in the most recent elections. The MKP secured 4.5 million votes, while the EFF got 3 million votes in the May elections.
However, she cautioned that the MKP's current popularity might be short-lived, driven largely by disillusionment with the African National Congress (ANC) and the party's connection to former president Jacob Zuma.
Nadvi questioned the long-term viability of the MKP, pointing out that it has not made significant leadership gains since the elections and remains outside the country's governance structures.
Nadvi also commented on the potential future relationship between the EFF and MKP, noting that while both parties are part of the Progressive Caucus, their focus on opposition politics, rather than governance, might lead to further tensions.
"In the aftermath of Shivambu leaving the EFF, the party will probably do everything it can to stop other members from also leaving and joining MKP or other parties," Nadvi stated.
She pointed out that the EFF has struggled to deliver on its promises of economic freedom, with leadership largely revolving around Malema. The MKP, she suggested, might face similar challenges if it does not reform its leadership structures.
Professor Purshottama Reddy, who is a public sector specialist at the Graduate School of Business and Leadership, took a more optimistic view of Shivambu's role in the MKP.
He argued that Shivambu's experience and leadership skills could play a crucial role in consolidating the MKP's position as the official opposition.
"Shivambu will be able to play a key role in consolidating the official opposition — that is, the MK Party and EFF. More importantly, he will also most probably steer the MK Party to a clear programme of action as the official opposition," Reddy stated, suggesting that Shivambu's influence could help stabilise the MKP, which has been plagued by internal disputes and instability.
Shivambu's defection has undoubtedly sparked speculation about the future of the EFF and its relationship with the MKP.
While some analysts see the move as a potential opportunity for the MKP to strengthen its position, others warn of the challenges ahead, particularly in terms of ideological differences and leadership struggles.
"If Shivambu gets fired by (former president Jacob) Zuma for whatever reason, he will be left without a political home, and that would not be good for him personally," said Nadvi.
Meanwhile, Zuma is expected to address the media at an MKP press conference in Sandton on Thursday.
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