Minister of Energy and Electricity, Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa warned South Africans that the country is “not out of the woods yet” when it comes to load shedding and the energy crisis.
His comments come amid optimism in the energy sector with experts predicting that given Eskom’s recent performance, South Africans can kiss load shedding goodbye by the end of October.
The minister did note that Eskom’s performance has been great in keeping load shedding at bay.
South Africa has experienced 131 days without load shedding.
Energy Availability Factor
Ramokgopa said that over the past week, Eskom obtained an average Energy Availability Factor (EAF) of 70%.
“When I say EAF, I’m talking about the rate at which these units are failing and also the degree to which they approximate their design capacity,” he explained.
“The same period last year, we were going through a period of load shedding and I had said to the country ‘short-term pain for long-term gain’. In the same period last year, we were sitting at about 55% EAF. This is phenomenal. I want to emphasise, we are not out of the woods yet but the team is doing exceptionally well,” Ramokgopa noted.
The minister also said that another milestone has been reached by Eskom as the utility has 35,000MW available. The last time this surplus was available was in 2018.
“This is phenomenal, it is a confirmation that the strategy adopted by the board is working and we are going to stay at it and ensure that we are able to deliver the kind of performance that is required,” he added.
End of load shedding
Last week, Professor Sampson Mamphweli of the South African National Energy Development Institute said that government will be declaring the end of load shedding by the end of 2024.
Mamphweli made these comments to Newzroom Afrika and said that there are a number of factors that illustrate that Eskom is improving.
He noted that the utility’s EAF has gone up, the fact that Eskom’s power stations have had fewer breakdowns and that the company’s generation system is performing well.
“It’s been a good four months of no load-shedding, and the data that we have from Eskom shows that it’s basically because the system is performing very well,” Mamphweli explained.
“We also have other factors, such as small-scale embedded generation coming onboard. We’ve got about 6GW of rooftop solar PV that has been installed by households and businesses that continue to help, even during winter when the number of sun hours have decreased.”
“It is very much possible that we might see the end of load shedding by you know September October, the beginning of October somewhere depending on the various factors,” Mamphweli said.
“I am very much confident that by the end of November, December government should be declaring the end of load shedding in South Africa,” he concluded.
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