An energy expert has warned South Africans that despite going load shedding free for 56 days straight, the winter chills and heightened demand will see the country snap back into blackouts soon.
This is according to Professor Sampson Mamphweli, the head of energy at the South African National Energy Development Institute (SANEDI), who said load shedding would return in winter as the country's generation fleet would likely come under more pressure as demand heightens as South Africans try to stay warm.
In an interview with Newzroom Afrika, Mamphweli said load shedding would rear its ugly head this winter as the demand for electricity increases.
He acknowledged that Eskom’s electricity generation and performance have improved significantly in 2024 and said that breakdowns at power stations have been consistently lower as compared to previous years.
Mamphweli also said these improvements, coupled with the private sector’s solar generation have enabled Eskom to keep load-shedding away for over 50 days.
In April, Eskom predicted Stage 2 winter load shedding forecast, while the SA Reserve Bank warned of over 200 days of load shedding this year.
In addition, Elna Moolman, an economist at Standard Bank said the bank saw significant improvement in load shedding diminishing because of efforts by the private sector to generate its generation capacity with rooftop solar, wind power and other green initiatives.
Moolman said that the main reason for this uptick is the growth in the private sector’s generation capacity.
“Several data sources, including from Eskom but also (independent) import data, confirm the extensive investment by the private sector in electricity generation capacity over the past few years,” she said.
Winter is coming
In addition, South Africa is currently benefitting from a warmer winter than last year and this has helped the utility. This warmer weather has resulted in lower demand for electricity from Eskom.
As we move deeper into winter this is expected to change as the grid will face more pressure and we could see stage two load shedding, Mamphweli explained.
“We are looking at stage two load-shedding at least if the situation deteriorates and demand rises as winter gets colder,” Mamphweli said.
“We might see days where we do not have load-shedding, but there could be days where, at worst, it would be stage five load-shedding,” he added.
Will load shedding continue?
Sello Mphaga, the divisional head of city sustainability at Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality told IOL News that when it comes to load shedding continuing there are several factors.
When it comes to load shedding ending or continuing, Mphaga said that it is a hard concept to have a concrete answer on.
“This is hard to say as many factors come into play, namely, Eskom has an ageing energy generation fleet, therefore breakdowns are inevitable and hence a drive by the private sector to reduce their reliance on Eskom,” he explained.
He did acknowledge that we will see load shedding in winter and also reiterated the position made by Prof Mamphweli.
“We know that the worst of winter is still to come so given that, we will likely see a return of load shedding this winter considering what has happened in previous years,“ he said.
IOL