A report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) says the Government of National Unity (GNU) has to demonstrate impact and improvement in the next five years to remain relevant to South Africans.
The African Futures report explores the country’s possible full potential if the GNU worked towards pro-growth strategies and is able to deliver on critical structural reforms.
Dr Jakkie Cilliers, head of African Futures and Innovation at the ISS, is the co-author of the report released on Tuesday, which explores the country’s growth prospects to 2043.
It noted that South Africa needed accountable and competent leadership pursuing evidence-based policies that will allow the economy to create jobs and eventually reduce inequality.
“It is only possible to reduce unemployment and inequality with an economy that grows rapidly and inclusively ... a partnership with the private sector to facilitate opportunities and for South Africans to do everything possible to unlock domestic and foreign investment.”
It said efforts to improve employment will succeed only if South Africa provides a clear and stable macroeconomic framework, including keeping inflation low and stable while ensuring that public finances are sustainable.
It added that the state’s effectiveness is critical for the country’s well-being, but most state institutions suffer from a massive deficit of competency, skills and ethics, “pointing to the need for a hard-nosed approach to the hundreds of state-owned enterprises, many of which could be closed or privatised”.
It said the growth of the manufacturing sector over the next two decades promises the most employment creation.
On health, the report said “the singular focus on National Health Insurance” has stalled efforts to carry out the other reforms required to build and strengthen the health system and contributed to the neglect and deterioration of the system.
It noted that a sector with significant economic and employment potential is tourism.
“South Africa has much to offer once it enables easier visa access, improves safety for tourists and invests in welcoming foreigners to the country. The 2024 GNU has now set a target to reach 15 million arrivals by 2030.
“Eventually, rapid growth, low-end manufacturing and growth in tourism, mining and agriculture will require additional measures to soak up unemployment, particularly by growing the informal sector.”
On crime, it said the country will not prosper if it does not improve state security planning and co-ordination, professionalising the police and fully supporting the independence and capacity of the judiciary to hold criminals accountable.
It said given the country’s divisive history of oppression and exploitation, the lack of national coherence on the future “is a massive problem, reflected in its racially determined politics and extreme levels of inequality”.
“The country needs a government committed to an inclusive multi-racial vision and a forward-looking leadership ethos – a shift to a class-based rather than a race-based analysis that champions the cause of all poor and unemployed people (the vast majority of whom are black) and the advancement of investment and entrepreneurship of all South Africans, while maintaining a focus on interventions that assist the previously disadvantaged groupings.”
On Monday, President Cyril Ramaphosa, writing in his weekly newsletter, said he was convinced the GNU will not only survive but thrive.
“There was general agreement among the party leaders last week that the GNU has made a good start. They believe that the GNU is working well and that everyone is playing a constructive role.”
The Mercury