London - Another year, another State of the Nation Address (Sona). For millions of South Africans, this is when the government of the day showcases its programme for the year ahead, consolidated by the impending National Budget for the next financial year, its performance in delivering what was promised in the previous year, what went wrong and what hope there is for the future.
Sona 2023 was no exception. When President Cyril Ramaphosa stood at the lectern to address the nation, I wonder how aware he and his colleagues were of the enormity of his speech, nay, the proposed recipes to remedy the disastrous stewardship of the nation, country, economy and society by his governing ANC administration, now in its 29th year of uninterrupted rule since the onset of democracy in 1994.
The fact that Sona 2023 attracted attention by governments, multilateral institutions, major corporates, potential investors and the global media, in addition to the manifold constituents at home, is testimony to the fact that the state of the South African nation is indeed perilous.
The post-apartheid generations, especially those who never experienced the inhumanity of white racist rule, are being tested to the extreme.
They will not be as forgiving as their elders for the failings of the ANC over the past decade in delivering the dream of a free, fair, decent, equitable, progressive, prosperous, advanced, tolerant and sharing society in which your past does not define your future and in which no one is left behind.
Democratic governments – not the authoritarian ones the ANC seems to be wooing – are looking for concrete signs whether they can continue doing business with Pretoria and whether the ANC should be a preferred choice partner in Africa.
The same is true of multilaterals such as the IMF/World Bank Group, especially after the ANC crossed the hallowed red line set by Madiba not to borrow funds from the group, when it went cap-in-hand to the two institutions in 2020 and subsequently for loans running into billions of rand.
It was not lost in translation that neither the plans nor the key priorities unleashed in Sona 2023 – load shedding, unemployment, poverty and the rising cost of living, and crime and corruption – are not new.
That South Africa’s energy crisis has made the country a laughing stock in the eyes of the world, especially the business and investor community, is no mean achievement.
By Ramaphosa’s own admission: “Our country has, for many months, endured a debilitating electricity shortage that has caused immense damage to our economy. Persistent load shedding is impeding our recovery from the effects of Covid-19 (and other disruptions).
“We know that without a reliable supply of electricity, businesses cannot grow, assembly lines cannot run, crops cannot be irrigated and basic services are interrupted. Without a reliable supply of electricity, our efforts to grow an inclusive economy that creates jobs and reduces poverty will not succeed.”
How on earth does the president and the ANC’s national executive committee expect investors and companies to do business in and with South Africa in a current electricity ecosystem of multiple outages in a single day, a R400 billion debt-ridden utility in Eskom whose management and operations structures are dysfunctional, and the army having to guard key Eskom assets that have been pillaged by organised crime?
The energy crisis has been short-circuiting for a few years and its management by the departments of Energy and Public Enterprises has been reminiscent of the Keystone Cops, tinged with an underlying dose of ideological factionalism, over much greater private sector involvement in the energy production mix.
Sona 2023 gives the impression the energy crisis has suddenly dawned on an unsuspecting country.
The reality is it has been brewing for more than a decade, especially after the state capture of Eskom in the Zuma era. For this, President Ramaphosa cannot be blamed.
But he has to account for his indecisiveness and inertia in subsequently definitively dealing with the energy crisis.
His Energy Action Plan is more of the same old story of decisive policy deficits, and crucially bereft of a national consensus and unity approach.
There are some new provisions, but too little too late, which would take years to implement before any meaningful impact is felt.
In this respect, the government declaring a national state of disaster to respond to the electricity crisis and its effects a few hours before the Sona speech does not make sense.
If this is an extraordinary national crisis, surely this is the time for national unity in decision-making, which has been hitherto woefully ineffective by the responsible ministers and Eskom, albeit the current and future management may argue that they are beholden to the dictates of their political masters, who have callously refused to take any blame for the energy crisis.
Ramaphosa is also “appointing a (new) minister of electricity in the Presidency to oversee all aspects of the electricity crisis response”. This is either a stroke of political genius or a game of energy thrones which might backfire on an already chastened president.
Rather than removing any confusion as the president claims, it merely adds to speculation as to who is in charge of South Africa’s electricity and energy policy.
Will it be this new minister of electricity? Or is Ramaphosa conveniently sidelining Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe, a renewable and just energy-transition sceptic and strong supporter of the coal industry?
We know that Pravin Gordhan, the Minister of Public Enterprises, in Ramaphosa’s own words “will remain the shareholder representative of Eskom, steer its restructuring, ensure the establishment of the transmission company, oversee the implementation of the just energy transition programme and the establishment of the SOE Holding Company”.
Ramaphosa has also set a new target to mobilise more than R2 trillion in new investment by 2028.
Some five years ago, the target was to raise R1.2 trillion in new investment in that period, which the president says is firmly within sight. These figures can be beguiling, but we need to differentiate between expansion plans of companies already operating in the country, and inflows from new investors. And, of course, between investment pledges or commitments and actual investments.
A sizeable chunk has already been put on hold because of the dire state of the economy and the relentless load shedding and outages.
We wait with bated breath till April this year when Ramaphosa hosts the 5th South Africa Investment Conference to see whether the investor community gives succour to his outrageous optimism about the state and future of South Africa and its economy, and whether his Energy Action Plan at last starts to bear the green shoots of a more reliable electricity supply.
“Extraordinary circumstances call for extraordinary measures,” stressed Ramaphosa.
Only time will tell whether the extraordinariness of the nation’s circumstances match those of the president’s promised responses and whether “we are, at our most essential, a nation defined by hope and resilience”, as he so defiantly maintains.
Parker is an economist and writer based in London.
Cape Times
* The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the views of IOL or Independent Media.