Eskom is predicting more than 110 days of load shedding between now and March next year if all goes to plan, but more than 200 days if its plans for summer fail.
The power utility on Wednesday briefed the media on the current state of its system and the outlook for summer.
“The immediate summer outlook indicates that load shedding can be contained within stage 4, if we manage our unplanned load losses within 14 500MW,” acting Eskom CEO Calib Cassim said.
Eskom’s current summer outlook assumes between 14.5GW and 17.5GW unplanned losses.
The best case scenario forecasts between 11 to 19 days of load shedding per month, up to stage 4. While the worst case scenario anticipates between 29 and 31 days of load shedding peaking at a possible stage 7.
“Eskom is working to contain load shedding as low as possible, with the aim of not exceeding stage 4 by maintaining unplanned load losses within the 14500 MW scenario for the 2023 summer outlook.
“We are not saying there will be no stage 6.
“If the unplanned outages increase to the outer scenarios of 17 500 then you would utilise stage 6 to protect the integrity of the grid,” Cassim said.
According to Eskom, their efforts would be focused on increasing the amount of available generation by adding 2880MW' from Kusile Units 1 to 3 recovery (2160MW) and Unit 5 synchronisation (720MW).
As well as supporting the system with diesel burn at the open cycle gas turbines (OCGT).
Eskom management noted that while Koeberg steam generator outages were progressing well and were expected to return on November 3, it would not make a direct impact on increasing available supply as Unit 2 will be taken offline shortly after Unit 1 returns.
Eskom needed to implement load shedding every day between April 1 and Aug 31 this year due to insufficient generating capacity to meet demand.
The highest intensity of load shedding was implemented during May due to high demand and high unplanned outages, followed by April due to higher levels of planned and unplanned outages.
In the five month period there were 153 days of load shedding, 55 days of stage 3, 42 days of stage 4 and 39 days of stage 6 load shedding.
Meanwhile all three licences the National Transmission Company had applied for including for trading, import and export, as well as transmission and system focused on the network assets, have been approved.
Eskom chief executive for transmission, Segomoco Scheppers said: “The transmission was the first to be approved and is the most advanced to be finalised because while the decision has been made, it is necessary to spell out the terms and conditions that the regulator requires compliance with.
So for the transmission licence that is probably sitting at 95% readiness but we have not received the physical licence yet. It is still being processed, the same applies to import and trading. Nersa has to document and specify the expectations and obligations of the company and the areas of compliance.”
He said other factors related to consent from lenders because the loans were underwritten by the assets being transferred to the different entity. The process was being led by Cassim.
According to energy expert Lungile Mashele, the true test of the current efforts will be in March next year when energy availability factor is expected to reach 65%.
Cape Times