I take the title of this discussion – “Is labour at a turning point?” – from an address given by Zwelinzima Vavi at the 40th anniversary of the South African Labour Bulletin in 2014.
Subsequent to that address Vavi, with the trade union Numsa, split off from Cosatu, leaving a massive dent in Cosatu’s membership and power.
I don’t believe that was the real labour turning point in 2014, but here we are almost 10 years later and I think the question is once again appropriate.
Cosatu and its position in the tripartite alliance with the ANC and the Communist Party are very much at a turning point right now. It is important for all of us to understand that when Cosatu was first launched in December 1985, it was one of the fastest-growing trade union movements in the world.
The one issue that kept the engine room growing and working was apartheid and the unified workers of South Africa. The real issue was a political one and that was to bring the apartheid government to its knees and to usher in a new democratic order. The question put to the alliance brokered in 1992 was to ensure that the alliance would govern South Africa in accordance with the reconstruction and development programme.
Right in the beginning cracks were already starting to show. By the time Vavi gave his address in 2014 the split was inevitable and the future ANC government had moved far away from the RDP programme and was already looking at Gear (Growth, Employment and Redistribution), eventually implemented under President Thabo Mbeki.
It is now vital for us to understand that the biggest trade union membership falls under three trade union umbrella bodies (including Cosatu as the biggest) who are mostly employed within the public sector through the government and parastatals.
For those interested in some of this history and in trying to understand the present it is useful to read books such as “Labour Beyond Cosatu” and “The Battle for Cosatu”.
Both these books take a careful look at some of the history and both try and predict some of the future. In essence, I believe we are now at a real crossroads. Trade union membership is radically diminishing, and the ANC government has reached a precipice.
Treasury has warned the government and its negotiators that any payment of increases beyond 3% is unaffordable. The finance ministry has been absolutely clear about the unaffordable wage agreements signed in the past.
All those tasked with wage negotiations in the public sector have had strict instructions about the non-affordability of packages given in the past. The tripartite alliance has made negotiation an almost impossible task. Trade union leadership is fully aware of the political power that they wield. Political power is an issue which has never bothered the private sector.
We, at this stage, are facing an Eskom that is completely hollowed out and on its knees. Eskom is unable to supply electricity to the nation and is for all intents and purposes bankrupt.
Bearing this in mind, it is almost unbelievable to read the package of wage demands outlined by the various trade unions. The unions understandably are making these outrageous demands specifically because inflation is running rampant and the cost of living is almost beyond control.
Workers will probably be taking home less buying power even if they are given an offer matching consumer price inflation. Over and above this, workers are aware of the billions stolen by politically connected suppliers to Eskom and the politicians themselves.
Workers are quite rightly stating that if fraud and theft were curtailed then their demands would be affordable. On the other hand, Eskom is saying they quite literally don’t have the money. Over and above this, the budgets have already been written and passed.
Most interestingly, treasury has categorically stated that Eskom may not implement pay increases which are not affordable. In other words with the already implemented budgets and the conditions of the loans to Eskom, it is quite clear that an increase beyond the 3% is going to be incredibly difficult to sustain and explain.
However, because of the politics and the threat of no support from the trade unions, the ANC government might have to go beyond its mandate. There is nothing new about an ANC government going beyond its mandate as it has done in the past.
The ink on the civil servant’s wage negotiation is not even dry. The civil servants were warned that any increase beyond 3% would be unaffordable but the ANC government agreed to pay more than double that.
The trade unions active at Eskom are fully aware that they could cripple Eskom and with that the ANC’s chances of governing after 2024. It is therefore not so surrealistic to hear that Numsa and others are demanding a 15% wage increase with extras.
The trade union shopping basket has a list of demands as long as your arm. Unfortunately, I predict that management will be bullied by the ANC government into signing an agreement far beyond sustainability.
* Michael Bagraim.
** The views expressed here are not necessarily those of Independent Media.
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