Cape Town – Late on Wednesday night, the country was yet again saddled with load shedding Stage 6 being implemented until further notice after embattled power utility Eskom was unable to recover from an extremely fragile system since the long weekend.
Now the country is being warned to prepare for a brutal winter of load shedding.
Eskom blamed the escalation to higher stages of load shedding on the increased demand after the long weekend and the additional strain that re-opening schools put on the system.
This coupled with a breakdown of a generation unit at Medupi Power Station, a generating unit being taken off-line for repairs at Duvha Power Station and delays in returning units to service at various power stations, contributed to the capacity constraints and placed the country under the threat of stage 6 once again, according to Eskom.
The power utility’s system report on Tuesday night indicated that it had narrowly avoided this prospect then, but yesterday morning Eskom abruptly announced that the country would be returning to higher stages of load shedding continuously until further notice.
Monique le Roux, a senior energy researcher at the CSIR, said there hadn’t been any fundamental changes to the network that would increase the risk of grid collapse at this time.
Le Roux said that if Eskom was unable to keep unplanned outages to below 16700 MW, Eskom will have to return to stages 5, 6 and possibly higher.
This proved true on Wednesday as breakdowns reached 16772 MW of generating capacity while the generating capacity out of service for planned maintenance was reduced to 5807MW.
For residents in the City of Cape Town, load shedding will be rotationally implemented at stage 5, 4 and 6.
The City said it was monitoring the Eskom situation non-stop and was already seeing the impact of the colder and shorter days with Eskom not being able to meet the demand.
Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis said: “Eskom’s move to Stages 5 and 6 load shedding is highlighting the risks faced as South Africa moves into the colder months when demand increases. This places additional pressure on Eskom power supply. City customers are advised to take note and help to reduce the risk of load shedding intensifying.”
According to Eskom’s latest system status report this week, at least stage 3 should be expected for the rest of the month and in May. The report shows the forecast demand versus available generating capacity for each week at two risk levels.
The first is a minimum level of load shedding expected under a planned risk level where breakdowns could reach 17200 MW of capacity. The second is the “likely risk scenario” which could see breakdowns reach 18700MW, with these forecasts at least 2001MW short on capacity to meet demand until the end of next month.
From June until the end of October, a minimum of either stage 2 or stage 3 is expected. Only from the first week of December is adequate generation expected to meet demand.
Independent energy analyst Hilton Trollip said the physical system needed physical solutions, not the words of ministers and plans and committees – the problem of rolling will not be solved with politics.
“Three things have to happen at the same time, to get to the end of load shedding. The first is we have to maintain the coal-fired power stations and get them to a higher energy availability factor.
“The second is we need to get new generation on to the grid.
“The third is we have to get corruption out of the Eskom operations and supply chain,” Trollip said.
Interim Eskom spokesperson Daphne Mokwena said they intended to have a system status media briefing towards month end or early May to update the public on the state of Eskom’s deteriorating system.
kristin.engel@inl.co.za