Cape Town - A breakthrough innovation in rip current forecasting is expected to help Cape Town beachgoers and lifeguards anticipate hazardous seashore conditions along the Cape Peninsula coastline.
Launched by the SA Weather Service (Saws) with funding by the Weather and Climate Science Partners of South Africa through the UK Met Office, the model marks the first of its kind for the region and is poised to enhance awareness of potentially dangerous sea conditions.
Rip currents, powerful channels of fast-moving water that extend from the shoreline into deeper waters, can pose a treacherous threat at beaches with breaking waves.
Moving at speeds of up to 2.4m per second, the currents often catch even strong swimmers off guard, leading to many fatal drownings.
Saws noted that during the 2017/18 and 2018/19 beach seasons, the City of Cape Town reported 30 fatal drownings, many of which were linked to rip currents.
However, accurate and consistent reporting on rip current-related fatalities is often limited, suggesting the actual number of deaths may be higher
Lebogang Makgati, senior manager at Saws, said the forecast would be beneficial to beaches along the Cape Peninsula coastline, including Bloubergstrand, Milnerton Beach, Fish Hoek Beach, Monwabisi Beach, Strand Beach, and Kogel Bay Beach.
The forecast information will be accessible through the Saws marine web portal, with work in progress to extend it to beaches in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal.
“This forecast will benefit the public by providing timely and accurate information on rip current hazards, allowing beachgoers to make informed decisions about when and where to swim,” Makgati said.
The model uses a sophisticated analysis of various environmental factors, including wind, wave, and tidal data from the Saws Marine Model.
Bloubergstrand ward councillor, Jonathan Mills, said anything new that comes along to improve safety is welcomed.
“I hope that beachgoers and organisations take advantage of all the information like this that’s out there to reduce the chances of ending up in serious danger when going into the ocean,” he said.
Lisa Starr, founder of the Helderberg Ocean Awareness Movement, expressed excitement at the initiative.
She has been stationed at Strand Beach Marine Protected Area for several years.
“As nature is unpredictable, I would still make sure that swimming in between the flags is priority and all children are accompanied by an adult in the ocean.
“But for experienced water users and fishermen/women this is a great new model.
“We have three rip currents in Strand. One at the pipe, one opposite Ben’s on the Beach and one opposite Topaz.”
Dhaya Sewduth, president of Lifesaving South Africa, described the innovation as a useful tool that could provide the analytics to inform decisions.
“So the message is simple. Only swim where the lifeguards are on duty as they would have done the assessments,” Sewduth said.
Complementing the Saws initiative, the National Sea Rescue Institute (NSRI) is gearing up for the influx of visitors during the holiday season.
This comes as search operations are continuing for a man missing at sea after attempts to save a 12-year-old girl, who later drowned at Monwabisi Beach.
The NSRI said the 34-year-old man remains missing, after attempts to save the girl in distress on Saturday.
NSRI Strandfontein station commander, Nicky Whitehead, at 6:45pm, NSRI Strandfontein duty crew and City of Cape Town water rescue network were activated following reports of a drowning in progress.
“It appears that the man had attempted to rescue the girl after she was reportedly caught in rip currents but then he got into difficulties before disappearing in the water. The man and the girl that he had tried to rescue are not related.”
The girl was transported to the hospital; however, she succumbed to her injuries and was declared deceased on arrival.
byron.lukas@inl.co.za