Cape Town - There is no sign of light at the end of a very long load shedding tunnel as energy experts warn that, according to Eskom’s forecast, we can expect load shedding every week for the next year.
The analysts have sounded the alarm over Eskom’s latest weekly system status report, which shows the forecast demand versus available generating capacity for each week for 52 weeks ahead.
According to the report, it is code red for the power utility with a “likely risk scenario” of a more than 2 001MW shortfall in the electricity needed to meet demand and reserves every week until March next year.
For the foreseeable future, Eskom will likely be operating at “code red”. A graphic from Eskom’s report for week 12 of 2023, conveying the alarming forecast, was shared on social media, showing the load-shedding outlook at two risk levels for 52 weeks ahead.
The first is a planned risk level where breakdowns could reach 17 200MW of capacity and the second is the “likely risk scenario” which could see breakdowns reach 18 700MW.
This means the country could experience at least two stages of load shedding for the rest of the year as Eskom updated its unplanned outages to 15 000MW for most of the year.
Energy policy specialist Anton Eberhard said: “So much for quick fixes to end Eskom power cuts. Here’s the power utility’s outlook for the year. More or less constant stage 2 or 3 or worse load shedding (unless you have your own solar PV panels and batteries).”
Energy analyst Chris Yelland said: “The likely risk scenario for the next 52 weeks (is) taken directly from the latest Eskom system status report published on the Eskom website on Friday, March 31 (note: this is not an April fool’s joke, it is for real).”
Eskom told the Cape Argus that the outlook for the rest of the year shows extended durations of load shedding, reducing in stage from November onwards, and that undoubtedly the failure of the three Kusile generating units and the extended planned outage of Koeberg will result in further high levels of load shedding.
The utility said there was no additional risk of system collapse during load shedding as it was a controlled management of the supply and demand balance, and that it was ensuring that necessary reserves for the system were maintained.
Independent energy expert Hilton Trollip said an average of Stage 2 load shedding was expected for this year. He said appointing an electricity minister would not change anything.
Trollip said: “In the middle of March, Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa massaged or manipulated the statistics of Eskom to say that the situation has improved. I’ve looked at the statistics, and this was misinforming the public about the real situation.”.
During this time, the country experienced low stages of load shedding, and even periods of no load shedding, for the first time this year which interrupted consecutive load shedding since October last year.
Trolllip believes that a lower reserve margin was being run during this time to create the false impression that Eskom’s fleet was performing better than it was – if this was the case, it was a dangerous move as it increases the risk of a national blackout.
“Running a low reserve margin allows them to decrease load shedding while still having the same performance of the fleet. This is dangerous because what stands between load shedding (an organised way to balance supply and demand) and a blackout is the reserve margin. If a lower reserve margin is run, this creates a much higher risk of a national blackout,” Trollip said.
Trollip added that the physical reality of the system would not yield to political strongmen throwing their weight around and effectively spreading disinformation.
“Eskom has seriously deep organisational and financial challenges. Its physical fleet is in a poor state, as are the coal supplies and its entire supply chain which is deeply impacted by absolute clear evidence of extensive corruption.
“There is a core of Eskom employees that are sometimes heroically keeping things going, but the Eskom organisation is not designed to carry out maintenance on sometimes half of its coal fleet at the same time, and until breathing space is created through extra generation on the grid this situation will get worse,” Trollip said.
Ramokgopa was approached for comment but no response was received.
Monique le Roux, a senior energy researcher at the CSIR, said they were expecting that Eskom would surpass its record-breaking load-shedding levels of 2022 in 2023.
Not only was 2022 the worst year of load shedding in the country but it was the first year that most of the load shedding was at stage 4, not stage 2.
“Eskom is still planning on the same amount of planned maintenance as per their initial plan at the beginning of the year, except for the month of July when they are planning on having around 1 500MW more planned maintenance than originally planned for,” she said.
“This is probably due to the delay in the return to service of Koeberg Unit 1. Eskom will have to manage the increased risk during this period to avoid very high stages of load shedding.”
Commenting on Eskom’s ‘Code Red’, Mayco member for energy Beverley van Reenen said the 52-week forecast by Eskom indicates that load shedding was likely during this period but the actual levels of load shedding were dependent on actual plant performance at any point in time.
kristin.engel@inl.co.za