The anticipation surrounding the upcoming United States presidential election is palpable, with the contest between Republican incumbent Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading the world to speculate on the future direction of US foreign policy, particularly in relation to South Africa.
According to political experts from North-West University (NWU), regardless of the victory tomorrow, the direct implications for South Africa may be minimal.
Dr Sysman Motloung, an NWU lecturer, pointed out that the foundational approach of US foreign policy was largely consistent, suggesting that whether Trump or Harris assumes the US presidency, the bilateral relations and trade commitments maintained between the two countries will likely remain intact.
“The US presidency will still expect South Africa to address the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) greylisting, and collaboration on combating organised crime will persist,” he stated.
Motloung also dismissed concerns regarding potential ideological impositions from a future Trump presidency, specifically around ethical issues such as abortion rights.
“Trump, if elected, would not push South Africa to reverse its abortion rights simply because of his stance on the issue within the US,” he asserted, underscoring that the nation should expect continuity in its diplomatic engagement with Washington.
This assertion comes on the heels of Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana’s presentation of South Africa’s positive review by the FATF, indicating that the country has made significant strides in addressing several key action items, with only six remaining ahead of the scheduled reporting cycle in February 2025.
The rapidly evolving race for the presidency is neck-and-neck, with latest polls indicating Harris holding a slender lead of one percentage point over Trump. This uncertainty raises questions about which candidate will assume the mantle of leadership from 2025 to 2029.
Motloung further remarked, “A close look at both candidates' platforms reveals a primary focus on domestic issues, with little emphasis on foreign policies that might negatively impact South Africa. In other words, life will go on, with much remaining the same.”
On the other side of the coin, Professor Kedibone Phago, director of the NWU’s School for Government Studies, highlighted the stark contrast in the candidates’ previous governmental philosophies.
He suggested that while Trump may strive to enhance the US economy aggressively, his policies could threaten lucrative agreements like the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa), which affords South Africa and other African nations duty-free access to US markets.
Phago noted, “Excluding South Africa from Agoa would be both meaningless and counter-productive, though a Trump presidency might be expected to threaten this agreement.”
Conversely, he stated that a Harris administration could preserve the existing structures and foster positive relations, given her past visits to the African continent and her likely adherence to Biden’s policies.
Moreover, Phago elucidated that the geopolitical stance of South Africa could come under considerable pressure under a Trump presidency, forcing the nation to align more closely with US allies to ensure favourable relations.
The results of the US election hold weight not just for Americans but for the global community, and particularly for South Africa which is entrenched in intricate bilateral relationships.
Whether under Trump’s aggressive nationalistic policies or Harris’s more outward-looking Democratic agenda, the outcome will significantly shape future diplomatic and economic ties.
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