South Africa is at the cusp of entering a fifth wave of Covid-19 infections as economists yesterday warned that although new formal lockdown restrictions were not expected, there was a downside risk to economic activity.
This as new daily Covid-19 cases have increased markedly in South Africa in the past two weeks and jumped to 6 372 on Wednesday, the highest since January 12, which was the tail end of the Omicron wave.
Old Mutual Wealth Investment strategist Izal Odendaal said there was unlikely to be big risk to the broader economy from the fifth wave, but this was dependent on factors still unknown, such as possible further mutation of virus and the event of the government imposing tighter Covid restrictions, which appeared unlikely at this stage,.
Odendaal said so far there had been no big increase in hospitalisations or deaths through the current increase in infections, and the government was unlikely to consider new restrictions unless there was a marked increase in hospitalisations.
Absa’s South African economic research team wrote in a note yesterday, “It is widely expected that it (the fifth wave) is just a matter of when, not if. We believe that rising Covid-19 cases are a downside risk to economic activity as they tend to hurt confidence, even in the absence of new formal lockdown restrictions.”
Absa said the seven-day average of new cases had increased up to 4 268 in the week ending April 27 from 1 549 in the week ending April 20.
On April 26, according to Department of Health figures, there were 5 062 new cases reported. The positive test ratio (new infections per daily tests) rose to 21.1 percent on April 27 from 18.4 percent on April 26, the highest level since 5 January 2022.
The Department of Health has not officially announced the fifth wave. In early March, the country went 48 hours without a single Covid related death. Early this month, legal restrictions related to the disease were lifted. The last Omicron wave had resulted in greater transmission, but fewer severe cases.
Discovery Covid-19 Task Team head and Discovery health chief commercial officer Dr Ronald Whelan yesterday confirmed the country was on the brink of a fifth wave.
He said the government recognised a new wave of Covid when the rate of new infections reached a 30 percent level of the peak of the previous Covid-19 wave.
The new infection rate peaked at around 25 000 a day in December during the Omicron wave, and weekly new infections would need to average 7 500 a day to enter the fifth wave.
“We are currently at around 4 500 on a daily basis, but the figure is increasing quickly as we could be in a fifth wave next week or the week thereafter,” he said.
He said Discovery’s own data was mirroring the increase in infections, the rate of Covid-19 relateed hospitalisations of Discovery members doubling in the past two weeks, while the rate of new infections of Discovery members had increased from 600-700 per day to around 1500 per day over the same period.
He said about 50 percent of the new infections were the BA 4 and BA.5 Covid variant, lineages of Omicron, and early indications were the severity to health of these variants were similar to Omicron, and resulted in less hospitalisations and deaths compared with variants before Omicron.
The impact of the fifth wave would also be blunted by the fact that some 90 percent of the population were estimated to have already had Covid, and the fact that some 34 percent were vaccinated.
He said a study released this week showed the booster vaccination could reduce the risk of severe disease and death by 84 percent.
Dr Whelan said there might be increased absenteeism from work through the fifth wave, despite the relaxing of quarantine and isolation regulations, and increased hospitalisations, depending on how much the rate of new infections increased during the wave.
edward.west@inl.co.za
BUSINESS REPORT ONLINE