By Sdumo Hlope
Is Eskom giving us the full picture? Something seems off, and it’s time to delve into the details.
On November 18, 2023, Eskom informed us about the resynchronisation of Koeberg Unit 1, promising a reduction in load shedding.
Fair enough, but on November 29 at 01:53, Stage 5 load shedding hit us, despite the recent return of Kusile Unit 2. Why the discrepancy?
Eskom’s communication has taken a turn. Usually, they keep us posted on outages, but this time, it’s radio silence.
Why the change, and what’s happening behind the scenes?
Let’s revisit the Energy Recovery Action plan. Eskom and the government had plans to slash unplanned losses and cut load shedding by two stages.
How’s that going?
And with rooftop solar installations reportedly contributing around 3 GW, why are we still grappling with load shedding, when according to Anton Eberhard, rooftop solar installations increased from 982 MW in March 2022 to 4412 in August 2023?
Businesses along the N1 in Midrand are making the switch to solar, purportedly lightening the load on Eskom.
But with ongoing load shedding, is this relief making the impact it should?
Eskom’s data, tracked by the Economic Intervention Forum of South Africa (EIFSA), tells a story.
They’re aiming for 14 GW as unplanned outages, but should it be closer to 5 GW, around 10% of their total capacity?
Are Eskom’s targets reflective of the true situation?
In Eskom’s monthly outage data, a consistent 30% of capacity is out due to breakdowns.
Imagine if airlines operated with a third of their fleet grounded and an additional 10% in routine service.
How sustainable is this?
Now, there’s this technical report from the Treasury that Eskom is “still studying.” Will it answer questions about Eskom’s transparency on Unplanned Capability Loss Factors (UCLF)?
Are they categorising certain capacities as ”out for repair”; when they may no longer exist?
And what about the promise to keep coal plants running — how true is that?
Running a plant at 17% EAF in January 2023 at Hendrina while incurring more than 100% of the costs — does Eskom consider this economically justifiable?
“We’re seeking clarity, Eskom. Can you shed light on these questions?
Sdumo Hlope is the CEO of the Economic Intervention Forum of South Africa’s latest position paper on the current implementation of Stage 6 load shedding.
BUSINESS REPORT