South Africa’s export estimates on oranges for the 2024 season were further adjusted downwards following the Orange Focus Group of the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) meeting held on Tuesday to review the export estimates on oranges for the 2024 season.
Justin Chadwick, CEO of the CGA, said yesterday that the downward adjustment was made for Navels while the category for Valencia oranges received its biggest projection cut of the season, mostly driven by recently reported extreme weather events in key growing regions.
“The projected number of 15kg cartons of Navel oranges expected to be exported is now 21 million, continuing the downward trajectory that was started in May when the season opening estimate of 25.7 million was reduced to 22 million,” Chadwick said.
“This latest review brings the total reduction for the season to a significant 19%. Currently, late Navels are being packed and shipped as the Navel season draws to a close.”
The CGA said key growing regions for Valencia oranges in Limpopo and Mpumalanga were well under way with their season, while growers in the Eastern and Western Cape would only start to pack their first Valencia volumes in earnest in the coming weeks.
The latest projected volume of 15kg cartons of Valencias expected to be exported by Southern African growers was now 51.6m, down from May's forecast of 56m, and April's season opening estimate of 58m, a 11% reduction from the first estimate.
Stiaan Engelbrecht, chairman of the Orange Focus Group, said the inclement weather over the past two weeks had meant further reduction in predicted volumes.
“The freezing cold in the Senwes region has meant that the Navel estimate in that region has been reduced by 600 000 cartons and the Valencia volumes by one million cartons,” Engelbrecht said.
“The Western Cape (Citrusdal) has been impacted by recent flooding and storms, while the Eastern Cape has been impacted by high winds.”
Storms and winds also cause fruit to drop from trees, while frost damage also impacts production.
John Hudson, head of agriculture at Nedbank Commercial Banking, said the recent series of climatic events experienced throughout the country was expected to have an impact on citrus exports, which was evident in the lower export volumes announced by CGA.
“Understanding the full financial implications of this situation will take time and become clearer as the season unfolds. It is worth noting the positive aspect of the strong juice prices, which are anticipated to hold firm,” Hudson said
“Consequently, some fruit originally intended for the fresh export market may be redirected for processing. Overall, it is anticipated that export volumes of fresh fruit may fall below last year’s export crop of 165 million cartons, but achieving a similar volume would still be considered a favourable outcome. With the citrus export season currently under way, it is premature to draw any definitive conclusions about this year’s crop.”
Zama Sangweni, an economist at Absa AgriBusiness, said the downward adjustment was expected considering that key production areas experienced flooding and other adverse climatic conditions during the growing and harvesting season.
“Despite a decline in production estimates, the current market situation offers favourable global prices for citrus. Consequently, we expect favourable export and processing prices to offset lower production," Sangweni said.
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