The Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz) said yesterday that the 2024–2025 agricultural season was likely to be a recovery period, with global weather forecasters such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia Climate School (IRI) continuing to indicate an optimistic outlook about rainfall prospects.
Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo said that, for example, the IRI saw a possibility of a La Niña occurrence from this month to April next year.
“This weather event typically brings above-normal rainfall for South Africa and the entire southern Africa region. The critical period for rainfall for South Africa’s summer grains and oilseed is between October and the end of February the following year,” Sihlobo said.
“This is a period between planting and pollination of the crop. The months after are essential, but the crop could still have decent yields even if there is less rain after the pollination.”
In the 2023-24 season, Agbiz said the drought was at its harshest as the crop started the pollination period from February to the end of March. It said had this been delayed by roughly a month, the outcomes would have differed greatly for the better.
The summer grains and oilseeds included yellow maize, white maize, sunflower seeds, soya beans, groundnuts, sorghum, and dry beans, and these were the crops whose planting season would start soon.
Sihlobo said it was also worth noting that other forecasters, such as the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, also saw a possibility of a La Niña occurrence, although still without a firm view.
On September 3, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicated that “the El Niño-Southern Oscillation Outlook is currently at La Niña Watch, meaning there are some signs that a La Niña may form in the Pacific Ocean later in 2024. A La Niña Watch does not guarantee that a La Niña will develop.”
Sihlobo said this cautious view by the Australian weather authorities was similar to what they saw in South Africa.
“On August 31, the South African Weather Service (Saws), in its monthly Seasonal Climate Watch, indicated that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is currently still in a Neutral state and is predicted to weaken further,” he said.
“Current predictions indicate the development of a La Niña state during the start of the summer season. However, there is still significant uncertainty in the predictions.”
Saws further advised to monitor the ENSO system as significant changes in the system may occur after the winter period due to increased prediction skill.
It said current predictions focused on the spring and early summer seasons and indicated wetter conditions along the south-eastern coastal areas during spring as well as the central parts in early summer.
According to Agbiz, this suggested the likelihood of La Niña in the 2024-25 season and potentially favourable rainfall.
“How South African farmers will factor these weather prospects into their planting decisions is unclear. We will have an idea of their view on October 29, when the Crop Estimates Committee releases the 2024-25 season’s farmers' planting intentions data,” Sihlobo said.
“We believe the weather outlook, input costs, and commodity prices will be significant considerations for farmers ahead of the season.”
Sihlobo said the improvement of weather conditions was not only for crops, but also for the horticulture and livestock industry. “The dam levels that horticulture relies on will benefit from improved rainfall. Equally, the grazing veld for the livestock industry will also benefit from better rainfall,” he said.
Last week, Kulani Siweya, chief economist at AgriSA, said that, in various provinces, enhancing the catchment capacity of water infrastructure and climate adaptation should be prioritised.
The latest gross domestic product (GDP) figures released by Statistics SA last week show that while the national GDP ticked up 0.4% in the second quarter of this year, the agricultural sector decreased by 2.1% in the same period.
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